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VOL. 7, ISSUE 4 (2022)
Brahmaputra River governance under climate pressure: Evidence synthesis on transboundary water management and climate-induced displacement in South Asia
Authors
Mukesh Kumar Yadav
Abstract
The Brahmaputra River presents a critical test
case for transboundary water governance in the Global South. Supporting
livelihoods for over 140 million people across Tibet, India, Bangladesh, and
Myanmar, the river faces pressures from climate change-induced hydrological
variability and upstream development expansion. India and Bangladesh maintain
no formal bilateral agreement governing Brahmaputra water-sharing despite the
river's transnational nature and critical importance for both countries. This
evidence synthesis examines 79 peer-reviewed publications (2000-2025)
addressing Brahmaputra governance mechanisms, climate change impacts on water
resources, water scarcitydisplacement linkages, and institutional prerequisites
for sustainable basin management. The synthesis reveals fragmented governance
across national and subnational jurisdictions without trilateral coordination
mechanisms involving upstream China. Existing frameworks—including the 1996
Ganges Treaty for the Ganges-Padma system, national disaster management acts,
and water resource policies— provide partial models while proving inadequate
for Brahmaputra's scale and complexity. Meta-analysis of 42 climate projection
studies establishes consensus: dry-season water reductions of 28-40% are projected
by 2050 under mainstream climate scenarios (RCP 4.5). These reductions
substantially exceed the adaptive capacity of institutional frameworks designed
for historical hydrological patterns. Water scarcity operates as displacement
driver through documented livelihood collapse pathways examined in 24
publications: dry-season water reduction triggers agricultural yield decline,
forcing occupational shifts and migration. Salinization of freshwater aquifers
renders agricultural land unsuitable within 4-6 years, compelling livelihood
transitions. Repeated flooding reduces livelihood recovery capacity,
intensifying vulnerability. Systematic comparison of transboundary governance
models (Indus Waters Treaty, Ganges Treaty, Mekong River Commission, SAARC
mechanisms) identifies institutional features associated with functional
success: permanent institutional mechanisms, technical expertise emphasis,
periodic adaptation provisions, and international facilitation. Identified
governance gaps include absence of trilateral India-Bangladesh-China mechanism,
inadequate adaptation to climatedriven variability, institutional separation
between water management and displacement policy, and state-level conflicts
within Indian federalism. Policy recommendations emerging from reviewed
literature identify five institutional prerequisites: permanent trilateral
commission, adaptive watersharing framework, climate adaptation integration,
displacement-livelihood protection mechanisms, and international financing
structures. The synthesis concludes that governance failures reflect
institutional inadequacy and political choices rather than technical or
resource constraints, suggesting that reform remains feasible if political
commitment materializes.
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Pages:102-106
How to cite this article:
Mukesh Kumar Yadav "Brahmaputra River governance under climate pressure: Evidence synthesis on transboundary water management and climate-induced displacement in South Asia". International Journal of Advanced Education and Research, Vol 7, Issue 4, 2022, Pages 102-106
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